How much can you know about a day shortly after the open? For a discretionary trader this is the daily question. Open types, gaps and early structure are central to auction market theory, and they have rarely been measured at this scale.
Vašek measured this on 16 years of NQ and ES with pre-registered tests, an out-of-sample period and multiple-testing correction. NOVAQ replicated the structures on recent data within about a point.
What the morning tells you
The open's position relative to the previous day's value says where price is likely to look. The open type becomes reliable some time after the open, and it describes the structure of the day. Gap behaviour depends strongly on gap size relative to recent volatility. These are stable, practical facts for planning a session.
What it does not
Direction of the close stayed out of reach. In pre-registered rounds, all 13 setups built directly on these findings failed. Open types did not help as filters on existing strategies, because those strategies already carry their own regime logic. Structure is real and useful, and it answers a different question from the one a trade needs.
Limits
These are frequencies and conditional probabilities, not trading rules. Definitions are not published here.