Dealer-positioning data is often read as a map of where price will go. NOVAQ and Vašek tested that from several sides, on a year of positioning data, commercial level products and hundreds of gigabytes of joint research data.
What held
Short-dated implied volatility improves estimates of how far price may move, by a low single-digit percentage on index futures. The effect is modest and real, and it fits the wider finding that size is more predictable than direction.
What did not
Direction was barely better than chance, published walls and flip levels did not act as support or resistance, and commercial levels showed no edge over random levels. In a pre-registered study of 76 items, 45 were refuted and one was supported, a volatility relationship now in forward test.
A control that changed the conclusion
Price often appears to stick to gamma levels. A plain price-average control on 15,434 zone touches reproduced much of that effect with no options data at all. The joint report adopted the control, and the slope fell about fivefold and lost significance.
Conclusion
Positioning data works as a context map and a volatility input. It does not give a directional signal.
Limits
The core data covers about one year in one broad regime. A forward test is due for evaluation around the end of the year. Vendors are not named, and no levels or vendor materials are shown.